Trading Insights 9/15/25

Chart of the Day 📈 9/15/25: 1 Toronto Chart That Tells This Market's Story

Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief

I just got back from our 2025 MoneyShow Toronto – and let me tell you, it was a BLAST! We had an enormous crowd join us downtown to learn about opportunities in Canadian (and US) markets…and I had the privilege of sharing my market thoughts from the keynote stage. That includes ONE chart that REALLY tells the market’s story!

Let me share it here as the MoneyShow Chart of the Day. It shows the performance of the “Big Six” banks in Canada over the past five years.

As Long as We Have the Banks, It's Tough to Be Bearish

You can see that for the longest time, shares of banks like Royal Bank of Canada and Bank of Montreal essentially marked time. Endless months of sideways chop is not what you want to see if you’re a bull. But you can ALSO see that the banks caught fire in mid-2024, then broke out above prior highs across the board this year.

You can observe a similar, albeit less amplified, pattern in US funds like the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) and SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE). They’re picking up steam, rising 10.8% and 14.5% in the last six months – and as I wrote on Sept. 5, they COULD end up replacing technology as a key sector driver for the S&P 500 Index (^SPX).

If you’re bullish on the market, you love to have the banks on your side. They’re among the most credit-sensitive and growth-sensitive groups around.

Yes, this IS “Fed Week.” Anything could happen considering how sensitive these stocks are to interest rates, too. But like I said in Toronto, things have been breaking the bulls’ way. Swimming against that tide as a trader doesn’t make much sense to me here.

Blossom’s Tim Johnson: How Finance Creators Can Help You Grow Your Portfolio

How can finance creators help you grow your portfolio? Tim Johnson, head of brand partnerships at Blossom, knows first hand. Find out about his financial journey — and how you can tap into “social investing” resources to grow YOUR portfolio — in this segment we recorded at the just-completed 2025 MoneyShow Toronto. 

• SPX: Recently Rangebound, But Eyeing a Material Breakout
  👉️ TICKER: SPX

  The fundamental valuation target range of my Current-Situation Scenario was revised up to 6,195-6,490 in the September issue. On the charts, the S&P 500 Index (^SPX) has notably traded more or less within the new target range since late June, when the lower bound of 6,195 was first breached, writes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

• DRI: A Restaurant Stock Trade in a Market Showing "Meh" Breadth

  👉️ TICKER: DRI

  Despite the powerful move since late 2022, certain market breadth measures are not showing the consistent strength we typically see. Meanwhile, Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI) looks attractive after pulling back to its 10-month exponential and bouncing, advises John Eade, president of Argus Research.

☀️📈 Get year-end picks and strategies at the 2025 MoneyShow/TradersEXPO Orlando (Oct. 16-18). Registration is now OPEN!