Trading Insights 9/10/25

Author

Mike Larson
September 10, 2025

Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief

Benchmark revision. The term sounds so anodyne. Harmless really. But thanks to the latest such revision at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it turns out 911,000 US jobs just went…Poof!

First, some background. The BLS reports employment and unemployment figures each month based on business and household surveys it conducts. Those figures get revised as additional data comes in past the initial deadline. Then each year, the bureau also uses more-complete, delayed data to adjust previously reported numbers. Those revisions cover 12 months of figures ending each March.

Now, take a look at the MoneyShow Chart of the Day, which comes from Bloomberg. You can see that the revisions have gotten larger and larger in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic – and that the estimated 2025 revision was ENORMOUS.

Source: Bloomberg

The BLS blamed a couple of factors for the large change, including discrepancies between what businesses said in survey responses and what they reported in tax filings. But from an investor standpoint, it doesn’t really matter. What matters is that this only INCREASES the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts – while simultaneously raising questions about the health of the US economy.

Consider this: Average monthly job gains previously came in at 147,000 over the 12-month period. If these figures aren’t modified in the FINAL round of revisions due in February 2026, that means the economy created less than HALF as many jobs on average as previously thought. The more-recent numbers are even worse.

Bottom line? Get ready for an initial cut from the Fed a week from today. Then look for even more in the months ahead.

Editor’s Note: I will be on-site hosting our 2025 MoneyShow Toronto this Friday and Saturday. So, there will be no Trading Insights newsletter on Friday, Sept. 12. Look for your next regular issue Monday, Sept. 15!

The best traders “stack” probabilities in their favor – using different types of analysis and multiple trading signals to increase their chances of success. They know how to manage risk. And they don’t dig their heels in when they face the “Right idea, wrong time” dilemma. Those are just a few of the pearls of wisdom shared by Blake Morrow, co-founder of Forex Analytix, in this MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast. Check it out! 

Last Call for the 2025 MoneyShow Toronto — Join Us THIS Friday-Saturday!

Our 2025 MoneyShow Toronto is about to get underway…and I want to see you there. We’re bringing dozens of leading Canadian and US market experts to the Metro Toronto Convention Centre North for TWO FULL DAYS of market education and entertainment.

Learn from expert speakers site like Eric Nuttall, Cheryl Zhao, Sue O’Reilly, Larry Berman, Amber Kanwar, Benjamin Tal, Tim Johnson, and Jackie Porter. From firms, platforms, and podcasts like Ninepoint Partners LP, CIBC Capital Markets, Blossom Social, Mackenzie Investments, and the High-Earning Women Podcast, they’ll help put you on the path to portfolio success — FREE!

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FEATURED PICKS FROM MONEYSHOW EXPERTS

  • SPX: Plodding to New Highs...But Watch These Signals
    👉️ TICKER: SPX

    The S&P 500 Index (SPX) made new all-time highs recently and was flying high on the back of the Fed seemingly turning more dovish. But then September began, and the media was full of articles about how it's the worst month and traders should beware, observes Lawrence McMillan, editor at Option Strategist.

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