Trading Insights 8/11/25

Mike Larson
August 11, 2025

Chart of the Day 📈 8/11/25: The Phoenix Known as Fannie Mae

Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief

Sometimes a story is just SO out there – so unbelievable – that you can’t NOT talk about it. That’s the case with the “phoenix” known as the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA)...or in colloquial terms, Fannie Mae.

If you analyzed or followed the housing market as closely as I did from 2003-2010, you’re VERY familiar with this company. Created by the federal government decades ago to help mortgage lenders extend and securitize home loans – and keep a steady stream of money flowing into the housing market – it blew up spectacularly during the Great Financial Crisis. That’s because we suffered the worst housing market downturn...and surge in mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures...in modern times.

The government ultimately bailed it out, along with its twin Freddie Mac, in 2008. It has operated in federal conservatorship ever since. But a publicly traded equity remnant never went away. It kept trading in the over-the-counter market. Several prominent hedge funds bought in – even as it languished for years trading for less than a buck.

Now, check out the MoneyShow Chart of the Day. It shows what happened to FNMA in the last 12 months.

Fannie Mae (FNMA)

Source: StockCharts.com

Yep. That’s a 796% gain. Widely held AI darling Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is “only” up 537% during that same time.

How could this be? Because the Trump Administration is seriously considering selling a large chunk of its holdings in the firm – anywhere from 5% to 15%. That could raise up to $30 billion, and value the two companies at a combined $500 billion. Not to mention restore respectability to the remnant shares.

Any transaction could take a LONG time to arrange. It could also take any number of forms. The president could also decide not to move forward. That’s because some worry that if the firms are partially pushed out from under the federal government’s umbrella, it could cause mortgage rates to rise.

But in the meantime, speculators who held their noses and bought these stocks have made out like crazy.

One final note: A contributor to our MoneyShow 2025 Top Pros Top Picks Report – Nicholas Vardy of The Global Guru – made FNMA his “speculative play.” His words: “Think of any position you take in FNMA as a call option — highly volatile with terrific potential upside, but with the benefit of the option not expiring or experiencing time decay.” Nice job!

Investors and Traders: Avoid this Six-Letter Word at All Costs!

In this episode of the MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast, Keith Fitz-Gerald (principal, Fitz-Gerald Group) and David Keller (president and chief strategist, Sierra Alpha Research) break down why investing or trading based on what you think the markets SHOULD do – versus what they ARE DOING – can be so costly.

We also cover the technical and macro signals that reveal where the S&P 500 could be headed next. Plus, we discuss market breadth, sector rotation, fear vs. FOMO sentiment, and the risk indicators most investors overlook. Bonus: If you own Tesla Inc. (TSLA), Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), or stocks in THIS beaten-down sector, you won’t want to miss what Keith and David have to say.

Traders: Don’t Miss THESE Courses - at the 2025 MoneyShow Orlando!

Looking to take your trading account to the next level? Then you can NOT afford to miss the full slate of MoneyMasters Courses we’ll have waiting for you at the 2025 MoneyShow/TradersEXPO Orlando!

Among them: “Uncover Hidden Orders with Level 3 & Level 4: The Power of Market Depth” with professional day trader Fausto Pugliese…”The Power of Scalping: Learn How We Have a 91.4% Winning Track Record Trading SPY Options” with Jon Johnson and Hugh Grossman of DayTradeSPY…and “Three Key Technical Indicators Every Stock Trader Needs” with John Person, CEO of John Person Inc.

Find out more about the Oct. 16-18 event — and our full slate of trading courses and workshops — here...

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