Trading Insights 7/28/25

Chart of the Day 📈 7/28/25: SPY "Beach Ball" Pattern in Play

Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief

It’s the heart of summer…so it’s only appropriate to see the “Beach Ball” pattern showing up in the stock market!

Take a look at the MoneyShow Chart of the Day, which shows the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) from mid-July onward. The white vertical bars are the regular trading sessions, while the light blue bars represent after-hours and pre-market trading.

What stands out to me? You can’t keep this market down – just like a beach ball when you try to shove it underwater!

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Weak opens are getting bought. Intraday dips are getting bought. We’re closing strong on many days. And even when we don’t, the intraday damage is contained. Strong opens aren’t giving way to atrocious closes.

Yes, we’re heading into a seasonally weak period of the year. August and September can be more turbulent and less rewarding than other months.

August 2024 featured wild volatility thanks to sharp movements in the Japanese yen, for instance. And I’ll never forget August-September 1998, when stocks tanked after Russia defaulted on its debt and Long-Term Capital Management blew up.

But if the beach ball market manages to stay buoyant through the next several weeks, we could be in for a great finish to the year. Now…where’s my sunscreen?

Gunn: Elliott Waves in a Changing World

With so much change occurring in geopolitics and society, it can be challenging to stay up-to-date with developments. Following the Elliott Wave Principle can keep you on the right track. In this presentation, the head of global research for Elliott Wave International, Murray Gunn, takes traders on a tour around the world and major asset classes — giving you an edge to prepare for what is likely to come over the next year. 

• SPY: Despite Solid Gains to Date, Worst Market Months Loom
  👉️ TICKERS: DIA, QQQ, SPY, ^SPX

  Over the last 35 years, August and September have been the worst-performing months of the year. Average performance has been mixed in August with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index (^SPX) recording losses of 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has eked out a meager 0.1% gain, notes Jeff Hirsch, editor-in-chief of The Stock Trader’s Almanac.

• The Dollar and Gold: What Our Charts are Signaling

  👉️ TICKERS: GLD, UDN

  The US dollar Index is again on the decline. It will remain very weak below 99, and if it drops below 96.50, a sustained dollar decline will be underway. Meanwhile, the metals markets have been surging, write Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, editors of The Aden Forecast.

☀️📈 Get year-end picks and strategies at the 2025 MoneyShow/TradersEXPO Orlando (Oct. 16-18). Registration is now OPEN!