Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief
It’s the middle of World Cup season...and that means we have winners, losers, and some big upsets on the pitch. But what about in MARKETS? What shined and what didn’t in the first half of 2026? More importantly, what comes next?
Take a look at the MoneyShow Chart of the Day. It shows the performance of the 11 S&P 500 Index (^SPX) sector ETFs in the first half. You can see that the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) was the winner by a landslide, up 28.7% year-to-date. The State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) came in second at +19.8%, though that’s a big step down from the gains it was showing in the depths of the US-Iran war.
Sector ETF Performance (YTD % Change Through 6/29)
Source: State Street Investment Management
On the flip side, ETFs tracking communication services and consumer discretionary lagged notably. Financials were slightly in the red as well amid lingering credit concerns, while health care managed a small gain thanks in part to a big push higher in the last month. One might even call that a last-minute “upset!”
In other asset classes, precious metals suffered a big, post-January fade. That left gold down about 6.6% in H1 and silver off 15.1%. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) managed to eke out a 2.1% total return, slightly better than the State Street SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) that tracks riskier credits.
Meanwhile, the left-for-dead US Dollar Index enjoyed a strong H1 finish – pushing its YTD gains to about 2.8%. Worst off? You guessed it...crypto! Bitcoin lost a sizable 33% in the last six months, leaving it trading for less than half its October 2025 peak around $125,000.
As for what comes next? We saw markets broaden out a bit late in the second quarter even as tech stumbled. I wouldn’t be surprised if that action continued into Q3, and you might want to position for it. If you’re a bargain hunter, now could be a good time to nibble at precious metals and energy, too. All in all, I continue to recommend a (qualified) “Be Bold” stance – and it continues to work!
Editor’s Note: The US stock and bond markets will be closed on Friday, July 3, in observance of the Fourth of July holiday. I will also be on vacation Monday, July 6. The Trading Insights newsletter will resume publication on Wednesday, July 8.
ETFs have become the investment and trading vehicle of choice for most investors and advisors, replacing mutual funds. Since inception in 1993, the number of ETFs has mushroomed to over 5000.
In this presentation from our June MoneyShow Virtual Expo, Les Masonson covers the ETF landscape, breaks down the broad range of options available, and explains how to build a diversified ETF portfolio. Les is the 10-year ETF columnist at Stocks & Commodities magazine.
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Defensive rotation was the trade last week. Health care, utilities, staples, and long-duration Treasuries all printed Extreme positive signals, while technology printed an Extreme negative signal — and credit confirmed it. Plus, cross-asset confluence was unusually high, writes Michael Gayed, editor of The Lead-Lag Report.
👉 TICKER: SPX
Peace discussions, ceasefire headlines, and renewed tension around the Strait of Hormuz continued to shape the cross-asset front last week in markets. Yet despite the fog of war, the equity campaign delivered an important internal message, writes Buff Dormeier, chief technical analyst at Kingsview Partners.
📈❓Global ETF Survey: How Will You Invest in 2026? Join thousands of ETF investors and share your views in the industry's largest annual ETF survey. Take the short survey. (ETF Central)
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