Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief
Sometimes the markets are complicated. Other times, they’re simple. Today, I’m going to share the one chart that explains why “everything” tanked on Friday.
Here’s my MoneyShow Chart of the Day. It shows what interest rate futures markets have been pricing in for the likely level of the federal funds rate as of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting.
Markets Aren’t Sure the Fed Will Stand Pat in September Any More!
Source: CME FedWatch
The lightest blue bar in the middle? It shows the probability – as of a month ago – that rates would stay at the CURRENT 3.5%-3.75% range when the Fed wraps its meeting up on Sept. 16. You can see markets assigned that outcome a 86.6% chance in early May.
The darkest blue bar to its left? That shows the probability as of Friday. It was down to 58.9%.
In other words, the much stronger-than-expected May jobs data shook things up big-time. After creeping up for several days, the chance of an actual Fed HIKE spiked at the end of last week.
If there’s one thing Wall Street hates, it’s when money gets more expensive! Growth stocks typically get hit particularly hard in a rising-rate scenario. So, it’s no surprise the nascent rotation out of growth and tech stocks (which I covered in my video Market Minute that morning) really accelerated to close out last week.
In other markets, the Treasury yield curve flattened notably, the US dollar ripped higher, and gold and silver plunged. That’s a textbook reaction to expectations of tighter Fed policy.
Don’t ignore it. Adapt. If you’re radically overweight tech, now is the time to get more exposure to other sectors. It’s what I’ve been preaching at recent MoneyShow events, and I still think it’s a good plan today!
Who will own the 21st century? Former Deputy National Security Advisor KT McFarland shared insights during keynote at the 2026 MoneyShow Masters Symposium Dallas. She explained why the race for global dominance comes down to two things: AI and the massive amount of energy required to power it. The country that masters Artificial Intelligence and secures reliable energy will be in a position of enormous dominance.
Is SpaceX a Stock You NEED to Own?
Eva Ados of ERShares is making a bold call: SpaceX (SPCX) — not OpenAI — is poised to be the next market-defining company. Using her strategist lens, Eva identifies characteristics pointing to massive growth potential in SpaceX.
She believes the market is missing the true disruptor. This isn't hype. It's a calculated bet on a company with market-shaping power. Find out why Eva is so confident about SpaceX — at the 2026 MoneyShow Masters Symposium Las Vegas! It’s set for July 19–22 at Caesars Palace, and she’ll be a featured speaker there.
We widen our lens today, looking at the big-picture monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index (^SPX) going back to 1980, a shift from the mundane minutiae of day-to-day activity. Weekly momentum is overbought but, bullishly, we do not have any momentum divergences, observes John Eade, president of Argus Research.
I’ve been thinking a lot lately about how crazy this journey in the stock market has been for me. These days, I have three kids and an amazing husband, and work from home in the San Juan Islands on our growing farm while I trade and teach others. Thirteen years ago, I never could have envisioned this life, writes Danielle Shay, editor of Five Star Trader.
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