Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief
It’s time for a damage assessment in markets. A battlefield analysis of major asset classes to see which ones the war is hurting the most – and what that might say about the future.
This week’s MoneyShow Chart of the Day shows how far various tracking funds have fallen from their 2026 highs. Bonds are down but not out – with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) off 4.8% through late last week.
But cryptocurrencies are spiraling, with the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) plunging 29.9%. Gold isn’t doing much better than Bitcoin, flirting with the standard bear market definition of down 20%.
Damage Assessment: Bonds Not so Bad, Bitcoin and Bullion Blasted
Data by YCharts
In equities, we haven’t hit the 10% “correction” threshold. But we’re not far from it. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was off 9.2% recently, with the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) only modestly stronger at minus-6.9%. Small caps and industrials are roughly in-between at minus-8.1%.
What’s the message here? Nothing is TRULY safe in this conflict-driven market except for oil and energy stocks – and even there, the volatility is off the charts.
So-called “safe haven” assets like Treasuries are losing ground, even if they’re outperforming stocks. Gold isn’t getting the job done for reasons I shared last week. And crypto is continuing a bleeding process that began all the way back in October – though some MoneyShow experts believe Bitcoin is basing here.
Bottom line? If you want real safety, you have to stay in cash. And if you’re an active trader, you want to keep position sizes smaller and avoid shooting for the fences – until the conflict ebbs.
Recorded at the 2026 MoneyShow Las Vegas, this trading panel featuring Kevin Davitt, Michael Golembesky, Dr. Alan Ellman, and Danielle Shay breaks down how traders are navigating today’s volatile market with options strategies, risk management, and short-term setups.
The discussion covers the evolution of the options market, the rise of 0DTE trading, how traders are approaching uncertain market conditions, and why many investors are using options to define risk more precisely. The panel also digs into earnings trades, covered calls, short-side setups, forex trends, AI in trading research, and the growing role of prediction markets.
The 10-week exponential moving average (EMA) for the S&P 500 Index (^SPX) is starting to decline below the 21-week EMA, and any follow-through could turn into a major intermediate-term warning. The last bearish crossover was in March 2025 and, prior to that, just as the last bear market was getting started in February 2022, notes John Eade, president of Argus Research.
👉 TICKER: CIEN
Ciena Corp. (CIEN) makes advanced modems, routers, and other systems for large enterprises in cloud, 5G, data center, and Internet of Things. CIEN broke out in September and has had a humongous run since. But like a few later-stage AI names, it continues to look like it wants to move up from here — if the market allows it, explains Mike Cintolo, editor of Cabot Top Ten Trader.
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