Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief
If you’re eating your way through your kid’s Halloween candy, then you know it’s officially the holiday season. Thanksgiving is around the corner, then Christmas. This has been a GREAT time for the S&P 500 Index (^SPX) historically. So, is a year-end run incoming in 2025?
Let’s start with the MoneyShow Chart of the Day – a look at the S&P 500’s average monthly returns going back to 1927.
Source: Bank of America Global Research
You can see that November’s average return hovers just above 1%, while December’s clocks in at almost 1.3%. Plus, your chance of having a winning month increases sequentially in the last three months of the year.
Now let’s state the obvious: Seasonality helps with pattern analysis. But it doesn’t guarantee anything. September is historically a lousy month, with an average loss of 1.17%. But September was a great month this year, with the S&P rising 3.5%.
I’m still leaning bullish here in Q4. So, if I HAD to make a prediction, I DO think we finish the year off with a flourish.
But I’m watching sentiment. I’m watching market breadth. I’m watching earnings. And I’m watching yields and the dollar. If conditions start deteriorating, I’ll let you know – and I’ll adjust my stance!
In this episode of the MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast, Ed Clissold, Chief US Strategist at Ned Davis Research, pulls back the curtain on what’s really powering the markets as 2025 winds down. From record-breaking earnings and the quiet efficiency revolution happening inside corporate America to a Fed that’s walking a fine line between stimulus and stability, Clissold reveals why today’s setup feels uncannily like the late 1990s (before everything changed).
He also digs into the under-the-radar data most investors are missing: the hidden recession signals to watch out for, the quiet comeback brewing in small caps and value stocks, and why sectors like utilities, materials, and healthcare could become the unexpected winners of 2026 as tech giants face their first real test.
Get Answers to Your Most Pressing Market Questions - at Our 2025 Sarasota Symposium!
Stocks have racked up BIG gains. The S&P 500 just notched its longest monthly winning streak since 2021, while the Nasdaq had the longest stretch of “up” months since 2018.
But BIG questions loom. Is AI a runaway bubble...or a healthy boom? Is the recent reversal in gold and silver just a correction...or the start of something more? And what about NEXT year? How will everything from the midterm elections to a new Fed Chair taking over impact markets?
Find out from the experts — at our 2025 MoneyShow Masters Symposium Sarasota Dec. 1-3!
The S&P 500 Index (^SPX) ended last Thursday’s session with a drop of 0.9%, a relatively modest pull-back from Wednesday, especially given the fact that the broad-based index is up 16.2% year-to-date. But looking under the surface, the gain proves to be more than a little bit deceiving, suggests Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.
👉 TICKER: CPER
Copper tends to make a major seasonal bottom in November/December and then tends to post major seasonal peaks in April or May. One trading option that provides exposure to the copper market without having to have a futures trading account is the United States Copper Index Fund (CPER), advises Jeff Hirsch, editor-in-chief of The Stock Trader’s Almanac.
⚡ 📈 This Stock Lets You Profit from Building the Power Grid. (Barchart)
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