Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief
It’s subtle. But it’s there. I’m talking about the modest rotation OUT of more-offensive sectors and IN to more-defensive ones.
Look at these two MoneyShow Charts of the Day. The first shows the relative performance of the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) versus the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF). The second shows the same ratio comparison between the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY).
Chart 1: Health Care Vs. Financials
Source: StockCharts.com
Chart 2: Consumer Staples Vs. Consumer Discretionary
Source: StockCharts.com
What stands out? Health care stocks are “breaking out” relative to financials after a long period of underperformance. You’re seeing the same thing for staples stocks versus discretionary ones, although in that case, it’s a more-muted move.
While I didn’t include a chart here, I’d also note that the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has returned roughly 7.5% in the last three months. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of bond yields, so that’s being accompanied by a sharp drop in the latter. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note just sank below 4% briefly, for instance. That was its lowest level since April.
Add it all up and I’d say markets are increasingly betting on economic weakness. Again, it’s subtle. It’s early. But it’s worth watching. Because if this trend were to continue, I’d probably dial back my “Be Bold” stance on markets.
From rising private-credit risk to the options-trading boom and AI-fueled rallies, this market keeps taking punches…and bouncing back. In this double-length MoneyShow MoneyMasters podcast episode – recorded live at the MoneyShow Orlando (Oct 16–18, 2025) – David Keller and Steve Sosnick unpack what’s really driving price action now.
They also explore narrowing leadership, breadth, and momentum deterioration, the rotation into defensives, trading tips for volatile markets, and how retail “buy the dip” behavior shows up in options flows.
Uncover New Investing Ideas and Trading Strategies for 2026 in Sarasota!
Our third-annual “hometown” event — the MoneyShow Masters Symposium Sarasota — is coming soon! From Dec. 1-3, uncover new investing ideas and trading strategies at our ALL-NEW luxurious venue…the Ritz-Carlton Sarasota.
Speakers include: Anas Alhajji, managing partner at Energy Outlook Advisors…Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research…Brien Lundin, executive editor of Gold Newsletter…Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower Investments…Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research...and many more.
It seemed like gold just could not lose in 2025. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) surged over 30% in two months as traders flocked in, driven by inflation concerns and tariff headlines. But beneath the shiny surface, the options market sounded a more ominous note: Volatility was exploding, writes Brent Kochuba, founder of SpotGamma.
Earnings season is rolling on and the Magnificent Seven stocks (minus Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), which reported earnings a few weeks ago) are in the spotlight. So, who has the best chart among the Mag 7 stocks soon to report earnings? It’s a close call, explains Tracey Ryniec, senior stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research.
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