Trading Insights 10/15/25

Chart of the Day 📈 10/15/25: The BEST "Gold" Chart You Haven't Seen

Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief

Why is gold ripping higher? A lot of charts purport to explain it. But here’s the BEST one in my book...and it’s one you probably haven’t seen.

This MoneyShow Chart of the Day shows the 2-year/30-year US Treasury spread. That’s the difference between the yield on the 2-year Treasury Note and the yield on the 30-year Treasury Bond. You can see that the spread has been increasing for several quarters now – moving from negative territory in late-2023 to more than 115 basis points this week.

2-Year/30-Year Treasury Spread

So, what does a BOND chart have to do with GOLD?

Well, governments all over the world want to “run it hot” when it comes to the economy. They want to pressure their central banks to keep short-term interest rates low…while they pump out debt-funded fiscal stimulus and ignore long-term inflation risk.

Yields on shorter-term notes and bills are more closely tied to central bank rates. Yields on longer-term notes and bonds are more sensitive to long-term growth and inflation expectations – and government balance sheet health.

Spread widening, then, shows bond investors are losing faith in fiscal discipline. It’s not just a US phenomenon, either. Spreads are widening on a global basis, as this Bloomberg story notes.

Which brings me back full circle. What asset class are confidence-losing investors moving money into? Both private AND public ones? You guessed it.

Gold.

If you think governments are going to bite the bullet and get more fiscally responsible, then selling the metal makes sense. If you think politicians will keep trying to take the easy way out, then you probably want to keep trading the gold bull market I’ve been pounding the table on since H2 2018. I know what camp I’m in!

Editor’s Note: I will be on-site hosting the 2025 MoneyShow/TradersEXPO Orlando from Oct. 16-Oct. 18. There will be no Trading Insights newsletter on Friday as a result. Look for your next issue Monday, Oct. 20!

Empower’s Norton: When the Fed is “Flying Blind,” What Does it Mean for TRADERS?

If the Federal Reserve is flying blind when it comes to setting economic policy…what does it mean for your TRADING strategies? Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower Investments, broke down how a lack of economic data due to the government shutdown could impact Fed policymaking — and markets — in this segment from our recent MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast.

• What this Oddball Move in SPX and VIX Means for Traders
  👉️ TICKERS: VIX, SPX

  There was recently a period of five trading days in which both the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) and the S&P 500 Index (^SPX) were up each day. That has never happened before. Is it significant, or might it be? Let’s dig in, says Lawrence McMillan, editor at Option Strategist.

• Sectors: What Should You Trade as the Fed Backdrop Evolves?

  👉️ TICKERS: XLK, XLU, XLV, XLI

  Many traders are wondering if they should be trimming cyclical winners and leaning into depressed defensives like staples and health care. History suggests the strength of the economy and pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts will dictate equity investors’ sector preferences. Make sure you’re positioned accordingly, writes Alec Young, contributor at MoneyFlows.

☀️ 📈 Get year-end picks and strategies at the 2025 MoneyShow/TradersEXPO Orlando (Oct. 16-18). Registration is now OPEN!