Trading Insights 1/5/26

Chart of the Day 📈 1/5/26: In Post-Maduro Market, Watch These ETFs

Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief

Investors got shocking geopolitical news over the weekend. The US sent a strike force into the Venezuelan capital of Caracas to grab President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, then spirit them off to the US to face drug trafficking charges. Markets then got their first chance to trade the news overnight Sunday and this morning.

So, what stands out about the trading action – and which ETFs are making the most of the news? Take a look at my MoneyShow Chart of the Day here. It shows the 1-day percentage change in the United States Oil Fund (USO), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), and VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH).

USO, GLD, XLE, OIH (1-Day % Change)

You can see that oil itself didn’t move much – up about 2%. That’s interesting. You could argue that an attack on a major oil producing nation should lead to more “fear buying” like we’ve seen with past geopolitical shocks. Or you could say that President Trump’s pledge to boost Venezuelan oil output in the post-Maduro era should lead to more oil selling.

But we didn’t see much of either. That’s because the global oil market is well supplied (or even oversupplied) right now. Plus, any push to boost production will take several years to pay off given the decrepit state of the Venezuelan oil industry.

Still, gold climbed because the news confirms we’re in a new, more unstable policy era. From Eastern Europe to the South China Sea to (now) South America, risks of more incursions or attacks are on the rise. So, investors are turning to the safety of precious metals as a haven.

Finally, shares of major oil producers and oil services firms are rallying because the move could open up the country to a multi-billion-dollar industry revitalization effort. That would boost revenue for companies like Chevron Corp. (CVX) that are already producing oil in Venezuela. Plus, it would give services firms like SLB Ltd. (SLB) and Halliburton Co. (HAL) the chance to profit from energy infrastructure investment.

It's still early, of course. A lot needs to be sorted out on the political front in the US and Venezuela. But these are the ETFs I’d keep watching in the days and weeks ahead.

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