Trading Insights 1/12/26

Mike Larson
January 12, 2026

Chart of the Day 📈 1/12/26: The Bigger They Are, The Harder They...Lag

Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief

The bigger they are, the harder they…lag? It’s not a perfect expression. But so far in 2026, it’s an accurate one when it comes to the stock market!

Take a look at today’s MoneyShow Chart of the Day, which shows the year-to-date performance of the S&P 600 Index (^SML), the S&P 400 Index (^MID), and the S&P 500 Index (^SPX). As you might have guessed from the index tickers, the 600 tracks small-cap stocks and the 400 tracks mid-cap stocks. Of course, the market cap-weighted S&P 500 is strongly tilted toward large-cap names.

^SML, ^MID, ^SPX (YTD % Change)

Data by YCharts

As of late last week, the 600 was up around 5%, the 400 was up 4.6%, and the 500 was only up 1.8%. Or in plain English, you’re getting more than twice the return in “SMID” stocks so far than you are in the big behemoths.

Yes, it’s early. But we’ve also seen SMIDs outperform on a one-month and three-month basis. So, this trend has been in place for several weeks, not just several days.

MoneyShow experts like Kenny Polcari and Erin Gibbs of SlateStone Wealth think this will be a big story for 2026 as whole, too. You can get the complete scoop in my MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast from last week. But in a nutshell, earnings growth could be stronger in the SMID space – while easier monetary policy from the Federal Reserve could disproportionately benefit smaller companies.

Don’t miss this trend if you’re a trader. Playing it could be the way to greater returns in this young new year!

Elliott Wave’s Galasiewski: How to Trade the Commodity Market “Supercycle”

Gold is the leader of a commodity “Supercycle” that began in 2020 — and is still in its early stages. In contrast, Bitcoin is the proxy leader of an infotech Supercycle that began in 2002 and will likely end around 2027.

Those are just two of the viewpoints you’ll hear in this recent MoneyShow Virtual Expo presentation from Mark Galsiewski. He’ll also explain how to incorporate those theses into your trading approach. Mark has been Elliott Wave International’s chief equity analyst for Asian-Pacific and Emerging Markets since 2008.

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FEATURED PICKS FROM MONEYSHOW EXPERTS

SPX: Still Bullish, But Trading Action Near New Highs Lacks Vigor
👉️ TICKERS: SPX
Last week, the S&P 500 Index (^SPX) traded at a new all-time high, just as it did before. Then, it dropped -- in both cases. Regardless, we will take new signals as they occur and will continue to roll deeply in-the-money options, notes Lawrence McMillan, editor of Option Strategist.

Small Caps: Are They the Best Trade in 2026?
👉️ TICKERS: SPY, IWM
The rally in small caps, as measured by the S&P 600 Index since the April 2025 lows, can easily continue into 2026. Whether a sustained advance will come to fruition will be almost entirely dependent on the economy, specifically sentiment towards a soft landing, writes Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.