Trading Insights 07/14/25

Chart of the Day 📈 7/14/25: What About Housing (and Housing STOCKS)?

Mike Larson | Editor-in-Chief

What about housing?

It’s a question I used to get a LOT. After all, I closely analyzed and wrote about the mortgage and real estate industries for years. But even though I haven’t heard it much from friends, family members, colleagues, readers, and conference attendees, I have heard a few people talk about housing STOCKS and ETFs as value/turnaround plays.

Which brings me to today’s pair of MoneyShow Charts of the Day. First up is the year-over-year change in the (yes it’s a mouthful!) S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US Home Price Index. You can see that after booming during Covid and the year or two afterward, house price appreciation collapsed. Then prices started falling.

Chart 1: The Case-Shiller Home Price Index (YOY % Change)

Price growth resumed in late 2003, accelerated into 2024, but has been easing back ever since. That brings me to my next chart, which shows the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB).

The $1.5 billion ETF owns shares of 35 home builders, building products companies, home improvement retailers, and home furnishings firms. Sample names include PulteGroup Inc. (PHM), TopBuild Corp. (BLD), Lennox International Inc. (LII), and Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL). I used a weekly timeframe and am showing a half-decade of trading.

Chart 2: The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB)

You can see that the XHB fared poorly in late-2023, rallied throughout 2024, then slid lower into April – just like the broad averages. But even as the lagging house price data hasn’t turned up, XHB held support at the 200-week simple moving average, then started rallying. It’s now challenging overhead resistance at the 50-week SMA. RSI is confirming the rebound.

I wouldn’t say housing stocks are out of the proverbial woods. But I’d watch this level, see if they can punch through that resistance, and if so? Maybe take a stab at XHB or related stocks as potential value plays.

Editor’s Note: Mike is on-site hosting the 2025 MoneyShow Masters Symposium Las Vegas. Then he will be out of the office. His Chart of the Week column will resume on Wednesday, July 23.

Today, we are including MoneyShow contributor insights with helpful trading ideas. Look for more of those on Friday, July 18, and Monday, July 21, in his absence. There will be no newsletter published Wednesday of this week.

• Cryptocurrencies: Why They're Just Like...Tech Stocks!
  👉️ TICKERS: GBTC, IBIT, SPHB, SPLV

  It has taken me a few cycles to finally come to the realization that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies are NOT a separate asset class at all. They are not currencies. They are not commodities. They are not some new thing. They are just stocks, explains JC Parets, founder of TrendLabs.

• SPX: Short-Term Consolidation Likely, But Uptrend Still Intact

  👉️ TICKERS: SPY, SPX

  Last Thursday, we discussed the rise in market complacency. Several technical indicators also now point toward short-term overbought conditions. The market could enter a period of sideways consolidation or a mild pullback in the next two-four weeks, advises Lance Roberts, editor of the Bull Bear Report.

🎲 Level up your investing game at the ‘25 MoneyShow Masters Symposium Las Vegas (July 15-17) at Caesars Palace. Register now!